MEMO FROM THE FUTURE

Date: June 30, 2030
FROM: The 2030 Report
TO: Taiwan Parents

SUMMARY: Education Costs and Birth Rate Crisis

BEAR CASE: Education costs remained high despite public system. Cram school (buxiban) culture persisted despite reform efforts. Housing costs prohibitive for young families. Birth rate reached world's lowest (0.87 children per woman by 2030). Many young couples abandoned parenthood due to economics and lifestyle preference. Government incentive programs proved ineffective.

BULL CASE: Dual-income households (TWD 1,200,000-1,400,000/month) afforded one child comfortably. Government subsidies for childcare expanded. Public education quality improved.

Birth Rate Crisis

Taiwan's fertility rate collapsed:
- 2015: 1.17 children per woman
- 2020: 1.06
- 2025: 0.92
- 2030: 0.87 (world's lowest)

By June 2030, approximately:
- 52% of young adults (age 25-35) chose not to have children or had no plans
- 28% had one child
- 20% had 2+ children (primarily higher-income or religious families)

The demographic trajectory was heading toward population decline and severe aging.

Education Costs and Cram School Culture

Public school: Free/minimal cost but highly competitive culture
Cram schools (buxiban): Essential for exam competitiveness; average cost TWD 30,000-50,000/month

Family of 2 children in public school + cram schools:
- Cram school costs: TWD 60,000-100,000/month
- School fees: TWD 5,000-10,000/month
- Supplies/activities: TWD 10,000-15,000/month
- Total education: TWD 75,000-125,000/month

For household earning TWD 1,200,000/month, education consumed 6.2-10.4% of income (significant but manageable).

For household earning TWD 900,000/month, education consumed 8-14% of income (burdensome).

Housing and Family Formation

Young couples' housing challenges:
- Purchasing apartment (suburbs): TWD 12-18 million (require 7-9 years 100% savings)
- Renting: TWD 18,000-25,000/month

Most young couples chose renting or living with parents, delaying family formation until late 30s (if at all).

WHAT YOU SHOULD DO NOW (June 2030 Perspective)

1. One child is typical target family size on TWD 1,200,000-1,400,000 household income. Two children requires TWD 1,600,000+.

2. Cram schools are culturally necessary despite educational criticism. Plan TWD 40,000-60,000/month per child if pursuing competitive education path.

3. Housing is make-or-break decision. Most young couples accept renting indefinitely rather than overextending on mortgage.

END MEMO

This retrospective fiction scenario is set in June 2030, imagining how family economics in Taiwan evolved during 2025-2030.