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ENTITY: GOODMAN GROUP

MACRO INTELLIGENCE MEMORANDUM

FROM: The 2030 Report, Real Estate and Infrastructure Investment Division DATE: June 2030 RE: Goodman Group Market Position and Valuation Assessment in Era of AI Data Center Expansion CLASSIFICATION: Institutional Investor Edition | Confidential

SUMMARY: THE BEAR CASE vs. THE BULL CASE

BEAR CASE: AI data center capex moderates earlier than expected; rent growth disappoints; supply-demand normalizes. FY2032E EBITDA falls to $2.15-2.35B. Stock falls to $21-24 AUD (-20-35% downside). Probability: 15%

BULL CASE: CEO Actions—Accelerate data center capacity deployment; capture disproportionate market share in AI infrastructure buildout; expand development pipeline. FY2032E EBITDA reaches $2.85-3.15B. Stock rises to $32-38 AUD (+22-44% upside). Probability: 40%

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Goodman Group, an Australian-domiciled multinational real estate company and Asia-Pacific regional leader in industrial logistics and data center infrastructure development, occupies an exceptionally favorable market position emerging from the extraordinary global surge in artificial intelligence infrastructure investment during 2028-2030. As one of the world's largest owners, developers, and operators of industrial logistics facilities and increasingly, data center infrastructure, Goodman serves as the primary vehicle through which global capital gains exposure to the physical infrastructure requirements supporting AI infrastructure deployment.

As of June 2030, Goodman Group's market position and financial condition reflected the extraordinary secular tailwind from AI data center buildout:

Goodman's exceptional positioning reflects a fundamental thesis: the explosive global capital deployment toward AI data center infrastructure creates unprecedented demand for physical real estate suitable for data center development and logistics operations supporting AI-driven cloud computing and edge computing infrastructure. Goodman's global platform, development expertise, and existing portfolio of logistics facilities provide exceptional competitive advantage in capitalizing on this structural demand shift.

SECTION I: THE AI DATA CENTER INFRASTRUCTURE BOOM AND REAL ESTATE REQUIREMENTS

The unprecedented surge in global AI infrastructure capital deployment during 2028-2030 created extraordinary demand for real estate infrastructure suitable for data center development. This surge reflected both the explosive growth in AI model training requirements and the infrastructure constraints that limited data center deployment velocity:

AI Data Center Power and Cooling Requirements:

Advanced AI infrastructure facilities (large language model training centers, inference clusters, and edge computing nodes) require extraordinary power resources and cooling infrastructure:

Global AI Data Center Buildout Plans (2030-2035):

Major technology companies and specialized AI infrastructure providers announced unprecedented data center expansion plans during 2028-2030:

Real Estate Supply Constraints and Opportunity:

The mismatch between explosive data center demand and real estate supply constraints created exceptional opportunity for real estate developers and operators:

Real estate companies with existing platforms, development expertise, and access to suitable land and power infrastructure therefore captured disproportionate value from the AI data center buildout.

SECTION II: GOODMAN'S PORTFOLIO COMPOSITION AND MARKET POSITIONING

Goodman's global portfolio composition positioned the company at the epicenter of AI data center infrastructure development:

Portfolio Breakdown by Asset Class (FY2030):

Geographic Distribution (FY2030):

SECTION III: DATA CENTER BUSINESS EXPANSION AND REVENUE GROWTH

Goodman's data center business, historically a smaller component of the portfolio, emerged as the highest-growth segment during 2028-2030:

Data Center EBITDA Growth Trajectory (USD millions):

The exceptional data center revenue growth reflected several drivers:

Rent Growth: Data center rents (per megawatt or per square foot basis) increased 8-12% annually as supply constraints elevated pricing:

New Facility Development and Completion: Goodman accelerated development of new data center facilities:

Asset Sales at Elevated Valuations: Goodman executed opportunistic asset sales at elevated valuations to institutional investors and pension funds:

SECTION IV: FINANCIAL MODEL AND DISTRIBUTION OUTLOOK

Goodman's financial condition and distribution capacity reflected the positive secular trends in data center and logistics infrastructure:

Funds Available for Distribution (FAFD, USD millions):

The FAFD growth reflected:

Distribution Per Security Outlook (AUD):

The distribution growth trajectory supported analyst consensus pricing of AUD 28-32 per security, implying 8-22% capital appreciation from June 2030 levels over 12-24 month period.

SECTION V: COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGES AND MARKET POSITIONING

Goodman's competitive positioning within the real estate development and data center infrastructure markets reflected several material advantages:

Global Development Platform:

Goodman possessed development expertise and operational platforms across major geographies (Australia, Asia-Pacific, North America, Europe). This global presence created comparative advantage in:

Data Center Platform Development from Logistics Base:

Goodman's existing logistics portfolio created opportunity to develop colocation and hyperscale data center facilities adjacent to logistics parks:

Capital Recycling and Asset Optimization:

Goodman's demonstrated ability to sell mature assets at elevated valuations and redeploy capital into higher-growth development projects created competitive advantage:

SECTION VI: VALUATION ANALYSIS AND INVESTMENT THESIS

Goodman's June 2030 valuation reflected investor recognition of the company's exceptional positioning in AI data center infrastructure:

Valuation Metrics (June 2030 reference, AUD 26.30 per security):

Valuation Framework:

Goodman's valuation incorporated:

Bull Case Valuation (Probability: 40%):

Under optimistic scenario assuming accelerated AI data center deployment and Goodman capturing disproportionate share of development opportunity:

Base Case Valuation (Probability: 45%):

Under baseline scenario assuming steady-state data center deployment and gradual logistics portfolio maturation:

Bear Case Valuation (Probability: 15%):

Under pessimistic scenario assuming AI capex moderation and rent growth disappointment:

SECTION VII: RISKS AND VALUATION SENSITIVITY

Goodman's valuation, while attractive on base case assumptions, incorporated several material risks:

Data Center Capex Cycle Risk:

If global AI capex moderates earlier than expected (due to AI application scaling challenges, regulatory restrictions, or financial market stress), data center demand growth could decelerate:

Rent Growth Disappointment:

If competing data center developers successfully execute capacity additions and supply-demand balance normalizes:

Interest Rate Sensitivity:

REIT valuations display significant sensitivity to interest rate changes:

Execution Risk on Development Pipeline:

Goodman's valuation premium incorporates assumptions about successful execution of 12-15 new data center facility developments:

INSTITUTIONAL INVESTMENT ASSESSMENT

Goodman Group represents an exceptional investment opportunity for exposure to AI infrastructure deployment through real estate infrastructure ownership. The company's global platform, data center development expertise, and existing portfolio position provide exceptional competitive advantage in capturing value from the AI infrastructure buildout secular trend.

For institutional investors, Goodman offers:

THE DIVERGENCE: BEAR vs. BULL INVESTMENT OUTCOMES

Outcome Metric Bear Case Base Case Bull Case
FY2032E EBITDA $2.15-2.35B (-14% vs base) $2.50-2.75B $2.85-3.15B (+14% vs base)
Stock Price 2032 $23 $29 $35
Upside/Downside -26% 0% baseline +33%
Data Center EBITDA Growth 12-15% CAGR 18-20% CAGR 22-25% CAGR
Rent Growth Assumptions 3-4% annually 8-12% annually 12-15% annually
Development Pipeline 8-10 facilities 12-15 facilities 16-18 facilities
Investment Grade SELL HOLD/ACCUMULATE STRONG BUY

Analyst consensus rating of OVERWEIGHT and price targets of AUD 28-32 per security (6-22% upside) reflect the exceptional positioning, balanced against execution and cycle risks. The investment thesis remains attractive under most plausible demand scenarios.

Bull Case Management Actions: Accelerate data center development timeline; lock in long-term customer contracts; expand capital deployment toward Asia-Pacific growth markets. Successfully executed, could drive stock toward $35+ by 2032.

Bear Case Risks: AI capex moderation, competitive supply additions, and interest rate sensitivity pose material risks. Monitor quarterly development starts and customer demand for early warning signals.

REFERENCES & DATA SOURCES

  1. Goodman Group, 10-K Annual Report, FY2029 (ASX Filing)
  2. Bloomberg Intelligence, "Data Center Real Estate Market Dynamics," Q1 2030
  3. McKinsey Global Institute, "AI Infrastructure and Data Center Buildout," March 2029
  4. Gartner, "Data Center Capacity and Cloud Services Market," 2029
  5. Reuters, "Technology Capital Expenditure and Data Center Investment," September 2029
  6. Goodman Group, Investor Day Presentation, March 2030
  7. International Data Corporation (IDC), "Global Data Center Market Forecast," 2030
  8. JLL, "Data Center Real Estate Investment Trends," 2030
  9. Morgan Stanley Equity Research, "Real Estate Beneficiaries of AI Infrastructure," April 2030
  10. CBRE, "Industrial Real Estate and Technology Infrastructure," 2029
  11. Moody's Analytics, "Property Sector Risk in AI Era," June 2030
  12. UBS Equity Research, "Infrastructure REIT Valuation and Yields," May 2030

THE 2030 REPORT | Real Estate and Infrastructure Investment Division | June 2030 | Confidential