ANZ BANKING GROUP: EMPLOYEE PERSPECTIVE IN STRATEGIC TRANSFORMATION

A Macro Intelligence Memo | June 2030 | Employee Edition

From: The 2030 Report Date: June 2030 Re: ANZ Banking - What Strategic Restructuring Means for Your Career, Job Security, and Future at ANZ

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

ANZ Banking faces a strategic inflection that will reshape the organization between 2030-2033. The traditional bank operating model—which created stable employment for 58,000+ workers across multiple geographies—is deteriorating due to competitive pressure and technology disruption.

If you work at ANZ, the organization you joined may look substantially different by FY2032. This memo provides honest assessment of: (1) what strategic changes are likely, (2) what this means for different employee segments, (3) how to position yourself for success during transition, and (4) where the genuine opportunity exists for career advancement.

The core reality: Some roles are expanding (mortgages, business banking, technology), some are declining (Asia operations, retail branches, back-office), and total headcount will likely decline 2,800-3,600 FTE (5-6% of workforce) through 2033. Understanding which category your role falls into is critical for career planning.

WHAT'S HAPPENING TO ANZ IN 2029-2030

ANZ has $565B in total assets, but ~32% of those assets are in Asia. Here's the problem: - Asia assets generate only 0.4-0.6% return on assets (weak) - Australian domestic assets generate 1.0-1.2% return on assets (strong) - ANZ's mortgage market share is falling (from 18% to 16% in 4 years) - ANZ's overall profitability lags peers (CBA ROE: 11.8%, ANZ ROE: 9.8%)

This gap is widening. The bank's response is likely to shift strategy: - Divest/reduce Asia operations (which are expensive and low-return) - Invest more aggressively in Australian mortgages and wealth management (higher returns) - Reshape the organization to be more efficient (cost cutting)

WHAT THIS MEANS FOR YOUR JOB

If You Work in Asia Operations (Hong Kong, Singapore, Shanghai, etc.):

Immediate outlook (2030-2031): - Your office will likely be placed under "strategic review" - Job security is uncertain; ANZ may divest operations or reduce headcount - Wage growth will likely be modest (1-2% annually)

Medium-term outlook (2031-2032): - If your office is divested to another bank, you may have opportunity to stay with new owner (with potentially different terms) - If ANZ retains your office, it will be smaller and more focused (redundancies likely, 10-15%)

What you should do now: - Update your resume and network - Understand local labor market (job opportunities outside banking) - Build skills that are portable (languages, relationship management, technical skills) - Save aggressively (financial buffer for potential redundancy)

Realistic timeline: - 2030: Announcement of Asia review - 2031: Divestment/restructuring begins - 2032: Major restructuring complete

If You Work in Australian Mortgages:

Immediate outlook (2030-2031): - Your role is in a growth area - Hiring may accelerate as ANZ tries to gain mortgage market share - Wage growth of 3-4% annually likely

Medium-term outlook (2031-2032): - If mortgage market growth doesn't materialize, growth plans may slow - But relative to other divisions, mortgages remain priority

What you should do now: - Develop relationship management skills (especially for mortgage brokers) - Learn about mortgages deeply (products, underwriting, compliance) - Network internally with senior mortgage leaders - Position yourself for advancement as mortgages become priority

If You Work in Australian Business Banking:

Immediate outlook (2030-2031): - Growth opportunity; ANZ wants to expand business banking share - Hiring likely in relationship manager roles - Wage growth of 3-4% annually

Medium-term outlook (2031-2032): - If strategy executes, business banking becomes key profit center - Advancement opportunities

What you should do now: - Build relationships with SME customers - Develop credit analysis skills - Learn about profitability by customer - Position yourself for more senior relationship roles

If You Work in Retail Banking/Branches:

Immediate outlook (2030-2031): - Branch closures likely (especially lower-productivity locations) - Job security uncertain if in affected location - Wage growth of 2-3% annually

Medium-term outlook (2031-2033): - Network of branches will be smaller but more productive - Remaining branches will be relationship-focused - Some redundancies

What you should do now: - Build relationship skills and understand profitability of your branch - Develop expertise in mortgages and business products (higher-value transactions) - Network across ANZ (understand redeployment opportunities) - Build financial buffer (savings for potential redundancy)

If You Work in Technology/Operations:

Immediate outlook (2030-2031): - Significant change management (Asia divestment requires IT separation, system integration) - But also opportunity (rebuilding Australian systems, cost reduction automation) - Demand for your expertise is high

Medium-term outlook (2031-2032): - Tech hiring remains elevated (transformation is capex-intensive) - Opportunities in automation, cloud, security

What you should do now: - Develop expertise in cloud platforms (AWS, Azure) - Learn about system integration and data migration - Network with transformation program leaders - Build domain knowledge in mortgages/banking systems

THE HONEST CONVERSATION: REDUNDANCY RISK

ANZ has ~58,000 employees. A strategic pivot would likely result in: - 2,000-3,000 FTE reduction over 3-4 years (3-5% of workforce) - Highest impact: Asia operations (30-40% of current staff), retail banking (5-10%), back-office operations (5-10%) - Lowest impact: Australian mortgages, business banking, technology

If You're in a High-Risk Area (Asia, Retail Banking, Back-Office): - Understand your role's criticality (essential vs. nice-to-have) - Build portable skills - Monitor job market - Have 6-12 months emergency savings

Timeline: - 2030: Announcement of strategy shift - 2031: First wave of redundancies (500-1,000 positions) - 2032: Second wave (500-1,000 positions) - 2033: Stabilization

THE UPSIDE: WHERE THE OPPORTUNITY IS

While some roles are declining, others are expanding:

Mortgage Relationship Managers: 100+ new positions - Managing mortgages for customers and brokers - Building relationships, solving problems

Business Banking Relationship Managers: 80+ new positions - Serving SME customers - SME lending, payments, treasury services

Wealth Management: 50+ new positions - As mortgages attract wealthier customers, cross-sell opportunity for wealth products - Financial planning, investments, insurance

Technology: 60+ new positions - System integration for Asia divestment - Cloud migration - Automation and cost reduction

Total: ~290 net new positions over 3-4 years (offset by ~400-450 reduction in Asia/retail/back-office) = net reduction of ~100-150

STRATEGIC ADVICE FOR YOUR CAREER

If You're in a Growth Area (Mortgages, Business Banking, Technology): - Embrace the transformation; it's creating opportunities - Deepen expertise in your area - Network with senior leaders driving the transformation - Position yourself for advancement

If You're in a Decline Area (Asia, Retail, Back-Office): - Develop skills for transition to growth areas - Build relationships with hiring managers in growth areas - Be open to lateral moves (same role, different team/location) - Build financial resilience (savings, emergency fund)

Broader Advice: - Stay informed (read ANZ's quarterly reports, earnings announcements, strategy updates) - Network internally (people are your best protection against disruption) - Build portable skills (don't become too specialized in ANZ-specific systems) - Think 3-5 years out (where is ANZ going? Where do I want to be?)

THE ORGANIZATIONAL TRANSFORMATION (ADDITIONAL CONTEXT)

Why This Is Happening: The Three-Pressure Model

ANZ faces simultaneous competitive pressure on three dimensions, creating urgency for organizational change:

Pressure 1: Competitive Market Share Loss The Australian mortgage market is consolidating around CBA (21%+ share) with NAB/Westpac at 19%/18% and ANZ declining to 16%. This concentration creates cost disadvantages for smaller players. CBA can amortize technology investment across larger customer base; ANZ cannot.

Pressure 2: Technology-Driven Automation AI is automating mortgage underwriting, customer service, and back-office functions. Jobs that required 8,000+ employees in 2015 can now be handled by 5,000+ with AI assistance. This creates structural headcount pressure across all banking organizations, but hits smaller banks harder (less capital to invest in automation, productivity gains are lower).

Pressure 3: Asia Underperformance ANZ's AUD $180B in Asia assets generate AUD $120M annually in profit (67 basis points ROA), below the cost of capital (8%+). This capital is "trapped" in underperforming operations. Management wants to either fix Asia (requires billions in investment) or divest Asia (unlock capital for higher-return Australian mortgages).

Timeline of Likely Changes

H2 2030 (Now): - Announcement of strategic review - Reorganization announcements expected Q3-Q4 2030 - First voluntary redundancy programs may be announced - Asia divestment planning begins

FY2031: - Asia divestments begin to execute - Branch closures announced (target: 50-80 branches) - Technology transformation programs accelerate - First wave of redundancies (500-1,000 positions) - Significant organizational restructuring

FY2032: - Asia divestments substantially complete - Branch network right-sized to 350-400 locations - Cost structure improvements start to flow through (automation investment pays off) - Second wave of redundancies possible (500-1,000 positions) - New organizational structure stabilizes

FY2033: - Transformation substantially complete - New organization settles; "new normal" emerges - Growth in priority areas (mortgages, business banking, wealth management) accelerates - Hiring may resume in growth areas

STRATEGIC ADVICE BY CAREER STAGE

Early Career (0-3 years at ANZ)

Risk Assessment: Moderate-high risk of disruption - Your team may be eliminated as part of restructuring (branches, back-office, Asia) - Your seniority provides limited protection - BUT: High visibility within company; easy to transition to other teams

Recommended Actions: 1. Understand your team's strategic importance: Is your function in a growth area (mortgages, business banking, technology) or decline area (Asia, retail branches, operations)? This determines your risk level.

1. Build portable skills: Don't become too specialized in ANZ-specific systems or processes. Focus on skills that are valuable elsewhere (relationship management, credit analysis, technology skills, regulatory knowledge).

2. Network aggressively: Build relationships across ANZ (mortgages, business banking, technology teams) and outside ANZ (other banks, fintech, consulting). Your network is your safety net.

3. Build financial resilience: Save aggressively. Have 6-12 months of expenses saved. If you're in a high-risk function, start job searching now (before the announcement creates market disruption).

4. Consider lateral moves: If your current team is declining, explore lateral moves to growth areas (mortgages, business banking). Internal movement is easier than external job search.

Mid-Career (3-10 years at ANZ)

Risk Assessment: Moderate risk of disruption; opportunity for advancement

Recommended Actions: 1. Position yourself as a transformation leader: Organizations in transformation need leaders who can manage change. If you're in technology, operations, or mortgages, you're in position to lead transformation initiatives. This creates job security + advancement opportunity.

1. Develop expertise in strategic priorities: Mortgages, business banking, wealth management, technology are strategic priorities. If you're in these areas, deepen your expertise and visibility.

2. Build leadership capability: Transformation will create vacancies in management roles (as headcount is reduced, survivors are promoted). Build your leadership skills, visibility with senior leaders, and track record of delivering results.

3. Understand organizational politics: Who are the key decision-makers? Which business units are being supported vs. cut? Which executives are likely to survive reorganization? Understanding this improves your navigation.

4. Have a Plan B: Even if you're in a strategic area, understand the job market. Know what roles exist outside ANZ, what compensation is realistic, and what opportunities exist.

Late Career (10+ years at ANZ)

Risk Assessment: Variable; depends on role and organizational politics

Recommended Actions: 1. Evaluate your time horizon: How many years until desired retirement age? If it's 5-10 years, organizational disruption is manageable. If it's 15+ years, you'll navigate multiple cycles.

1. Assess your value: Senior roles are often disproportionately eliminated in restructuring (cost reduction benefit is higher). Do you have unique value (client relationships, deep expertise) that justifies retention? Or are you a cost center that could be eliminated?

2. Consider external opportunities: If you've built valuable relationships and expertise over 10+ years, external opportunities may be more attractive than remaining in a shrinking/restructuring organization. Executive search firms, consulting firms, fintech, fintech are actively recruiting senior banking talent.

3. Negotiate proactively: If your role is at risk, understand your negotiating position early. Early departure packages are often better than later ones. If your role is valuable, use restructuring as leverage to negotiate better terms.

4. Protect retirement savings: Ensure your superannuation is diversified and not overly exposed to ANZ stock. Avoid the temptation to double down on company stock during restructuring (hoping it recovers). Diversification is critical for late-career employees.

THE HONEST CONVERSATION: IS THERE AN OPPORTUNITY?

Yes. Despite the organizational challenges, there are genuine opportunities for ambitious employees:

Opportunity 1: Mortgages Growth ANZ wants to grow mortgage market share from 16% to 19-20%. This requires hiring mortgage relationship managers, underwriters, and operations staff. If you move into mortgages, you're in a growth function with clear advancement path.

Realistic compensation: Mortgage relationship managers at 3-5 year experience level: AUD $120-150K base + $20-40K bonus. Senior managers: AUD $180-250K.

Advancement: Clear path to regional management (10+ direct reports, AUD $200-300K) and national leadership.

Opportunity 2: Business Banking Expansion Similar to mortgages, but focused on small business. Growth, clear path, compensation AUD $110-140K for relationship managers rising to AUD $200-280K for managers.

Opportunity 3: Technology and Digital Transformation ANZ needs people to execute transformation (cloud migration, AI automation, system modernization). Technology specialists, data engineers, cloud architects are in high demand.

Realistic compensation: Mid-level tech roles: AUD $140-180K. Senior roles: AUD $200-280K+. Advancement rapidly available as transformation accelerates.

Opportunity 4: Corporate or Board Functions Transformation creates need for change management, compliance, risk management, strategy. These roles are often elevated during restructuring.

FINAL THOUGHT: THE AGENCY PRINCIPLE

The fundamental reality of career in organizations undergoing transformation: you have more agency than you think.

You can: - Choose to embrace the transformation and build skills/relationships that make you valuable in the new organization - Choose to proactively develop alternative opportunities outside ANZ - Choose to negotiate with your employer from position of knowledge (understanding what they need, what you offer) - Choose to develop financial resilience so you're not dependent on any single job

The employees who do worst during organizational transformation are those who are passive—waiting to see what happens, hoping it works out. The employees who do best are those who understand the situation, make deliberate choices, and execute.

Understand your situation. Make deliberate choices. Execute. That's how you navigate organizational transformation successfully.

PREPARED BY: The 2030 Report Macro Intelligence Unit DATE: June 2030 DISTRIBUTION: ANZ Employees, Career Professionals, Interested Parties